The senators of the College of Justice issued their warning in response to Justice Secretary Neil Gray’s proposals to tackle Scotland’s overcrowded prisons by allowing long-term prisoners to serve the final third of their sentences in the community, without the existing exemption for sexual offenders.

They said: “A properly functioning justice system must have regard to the rights of victims and the safety of the public.

“The proposals appear to be directed more to trying to address prison numbers than a system-wide consideration of how to address reoffending and rehabilitation.”

The judges warned that “merely accelerating automatic early release, without additional resources and personnel, will not improve matters for society, victims or those who offend”.

They added: “If anything, it is likely to make matters worse.”

The plans would also extend the definition of a short-term prisoner from four to five years, meaning more inmates would qualify for release after serving 30 per cent of their sentence, or 50 per cent for sexual offences.

The government proposes applying the two-thirds release rule for long-term prisoners retrospectively to those sentenced after February 2016. It said that “had this change taken effect on February 27 2026, around 328 people would have been released on non-parole licence immediately”.

The proposals come as Scotland’s prisons are around 800 inmates over capacity.

The judges called for further research before legislation is changed, saying: “While the issues of prison capacity and overcrowding may be urgent, we consider that more research and time is required to look carefully at the law in these important areas, rather than making quick but far-reaching changes in the law, without sufficient evidence, which may have to be revisited within a short number of years.”

They warned: “Without more thorough consultation and consideration there is a real risk that changes in the law may, as an unintended consequence of measures designed largely to reduce prisoner numbers, adversely impact on public safety as well as public and judicial confidence in these areas.”

On the proposed two-thirds release rule, they highlighted a “risk of detracting from public protection and reducing public safety”.

Mr Gray said: “Scotland’s prison population, like many comparable countries, has risen to unsustainable levels and must be addressed.”

He added that the government would consider consultation responses while “maintaining public protection and reducing future offending”, alongside plans to build two new prisons.

The intervention comes as official figures show sexual crimes rose nine per cent year-on-year to 16,560 in the 12 months to June 2026. Rape and attempted rape increased eight per cent to 3,240, up 32 per cent from June 2022.