In 2024-25, HM Prison and Probation Service (HMPPS) spent £1.34 billion on the Probation Service. The Ministry of Justice (MoJ) estimates that the economic and social cost of reoffending across adult offenders is around £20.9bn a year. The number of prisoners recalled to prison is at an all-time high. At the end of March 2025, the recall prison population was 13,583, accounting for 15 per cent of the prison population, a 49 per cent increase since June 2021.

Since the Probation Service was brought under full public control in 2021, its performance has deteriorated, along with an overall rise in reoffending rates. Last year, the service met just seven of its 27 performance targets. Three years earlier it was meeting half of its targets.

HMPPS’s new programme, Our Future Probation Service, was introduced in an effort to combat this declining performance. However, the PAC warns that this is unlikely to be sufficient. The MoJ does not have a strong history of implementing digital change programmes well, and crucially they have yet to make decisions on changes they plan to make to the level of supervision some offenders receive.

Given the risk these decisions could pose to the public, the PAC is calling for the MoJ and HMPPS to set clear thresholds for the level of risk they are willing to accept, to help monitor operational and public protection risks.

The vacancy rate for probation officers increased from 14 per cent in 2021 to 21 per cent in 2025. Probation officers are estimated to have been working on average at 118 per cent capacity for several years, though recent findings suggest this figure is likely much higher. The inquiry heard evidence that the Probation Service’s culture is built on ‘emotional strain’ and ‘trauma’.

The PAC was concerned to learn that when evaluating the risk of harm presented by offenders, practitioners only adequately assessed 28 per cent of cases in 2024, compared to 60 per cent of cases in 2018-19. This report calls for the MoJ to set out a clear timeline for when it expects its performance against key metrics to improve.

Sir Geoffrey Clifton-Brown, chair of the Public Accounts Committee, said: “The probation service in England and Wales is failing. The endpoint of this failure is demonstrated by our report, which shows the number of prisoners recalled to prison is at an all-time high. It was deeply alarming to hear of probation staff working under immense pressure in a seemingly toxic environment, in a culture built on emotional strain and trauma. This not only raises concerns about the toll the overall system is taking on their mental health but the impact it is having on their ability to perform their duties. The public’s safety relies on them doing so.”