Scott Wright

The programme was brought forward by the first minister from September to enable a “full year of delivery” on the “people’s priorities”, namely the cost-of-living and the NHS, totemic issues he believes the forthcoming election will be won and lost on. 

That theme of delivery permeated throughout the first minister’s statement to parliament as he announced his legislative agenda. Since taking  office amidst deep global uncertainty, Swinney said “progress has been made”, a “corner has been turned”, and that his government is putting “Scotland on track for success”. 

Anchored around his objectives of eradicating child poverty, stimulating economic growth, addressing and delivering net zero, and improving public services, the programme contains six bills and non-legislative measures that Swinney hopes will demonstrate a laser-like focus on delivery, competence, and most importantly resonate with voters.

The programme contained a notable shift in tone to business engagement, underpinned by policies which demonstrate his government has been in listening (and delivery) mode. Commitments to subject future regulation to enhanced scrutiny to avoid exacerbating the cumulative burden and inhibiting investment will be cautiously welcomed by businesses.

As will the commitment to assess regulatory controls of key growth sectors, with a view to presumably removing or simplifying them. Businesses should look to engage constructively with this process to reduce potential barriers to investment. The surprise commitment to no further divergence from the UK on Income Tax bands and rates for the remainder of the parliament is promising - though businesses will want this commitment sustained beyond May 2026.

The announcement that the Scottish government’s “cost-of-living guarantee” through the provision of free eye appointments, free prescriptions and free tuition will be enhanced by the permanent scrapping of peak rail fares will be welcomed by commuters across the country.  

The eye-catching announcement to deliver 100,000 new GP appointments to “end the 8am lottery” will placate voters so long as it can be delivered ahead of next May. As ever, the ability to deliver on the domestic agenda, will be predicated upon the government’s ability to grow the economy. 

The first test of public opinion of John Swinney’s record in office will be June’s by-election in Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse following the death of Christina McKelvie. If the SNP retains the seat, the First Minister may be emboldened that his plan is working, and his confidence may grow that the measures outlined in the programme will be sufficient to return the SNP as the largest party next May and, most probably extend his, and his party’s tenure in Bute House. 

With a year remaining until the election, in the near-term, businesses should continue to monitor closely as the policy platform for the election begins to crystalise, capitalising on opportunities to engage in the manifesto development process. With the SNP projected to fall short of the 65 seats required to form a majority, multiple parties will have a role to play in shaping and scrutinising policies of the future.

Scott Wright is Scottish affairs and devolved nations lead at Pinsent Masons