Statistics released yesterday forecast that the average daily population in July will lie between 8,200 and 8,800 prisoners.

As of 27 February, the total stood at 8,310, down from a high of 8,441 in November.

The 26-page report states that numbers would be between 180 and 200 higher were it not for the Scottish government’s emergency early release (EER) scheme.

The sentenced population is described as “almost certain” to increase, with projections suggesting it could reach 6,850 by July, compared with 6,122 last week.

By contrast, the remand population – those awaiting trial or sentence – is said to be more difficult to predict. It is expected to be between 1,450 and 2,500 in July, compared with 1,873 in the latest figures.

“The overall projected range for the average daily prison population in July 2026 is between 8,200 and 8,800,” the report said.

“The modelling indicates it is highly likely that the overall prison population in Scotland will increase between the beginning of February 2026 and the end of July 2026.

“It is important to note that the population on February 1, 2026 is estimated to have been approximately 180-200 lower than it would have been had EER not been implemented.”

Alongside the early release scheme, ministers are seeking to reduce the automatic release point for certain short-term prisoners from 40 per cent to 30 per cent in an effort to ease pressure on the estate.

Justice Secretary Angela Constance said: “Scotland is not alone in facing challenges from a rising and increasingly complex prison population.

“There is no single reason for this change and no single solution, and we are taking a number of actions to tackle this, including maximising the estate with additional capital funding put in place, increasing investment in community justice, and making greater use of home detention curfew.”

A spokesman for the Scottish Prison Service said: “We have been managing an extremely high and complex population for more than two years and this has had an increasingly destabilising impact on our establishments, with staff unable to do the critical work of building relationships and supporting rehabilitation, and prisoners frustrated by the impact on their daily lives and the opportunities available to them.

“We need to see a long-term reduction in our population, so we can fully support people in our care, reduce their risk of reoffending, and help build the safer communities we all want to see.”