Savills: Brexit uncertainty to delay recovery in London housing market as provinces prove their worth



Scotland’s property market along with those in the English provinces are all expected to outperform London, as buyers recognise the relative affordability and the potential to stretch their equity, according to real estate adviser Savills.

A property bought for £1 million in prime central London in 2007 is now worth £1.37m, compared to £1.28m in outer prime London, £1.15m in the suburbs, and just £911,000 in the Midlands and North and £876,000 in Scotland – a £494,000 potential equity gap.

Meanwhile, heightened uncertainty around Brexit negotiations will delay recovery in the prime central London housing market for a further year to eighteen months, although this will be followed by a bounce in 2021, Savills said in its new five year forecasts.

“Buyers see that the price gap between London and the country markets has probably stopped growing, so are more willing to sell up and make the move out,” says Lucian Cook, Savills UK head of residential research

“But rather than extending their borrowing, many are looking to buy a bigger home and potentially reduce their mortgage at the same time, capping price growth at the relatively modest levels we are forecasting.”

Mr Cook added: “Our five-year projection for London may look ambitious at this moment of peak uncertainty, but it looks pretty modest when viewed against history. And history tells us that when prime central London house prices bounce, the speed of that bounce can take the market by surprise.”

Andrew Perratt of Savills said: “Scotland appears to be beyond the sphere of influence of London which is being challenged by additional stamp duty, announced at the Conservative party conference, and the short-term uncertainty fuelled by current Brexit negotiations.

“The value for money, good schools effect and quality of life cards are falling in Scotland’s favour, sealing its reputation as a great place to live and work.”